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Exceeding the Bounds of Expert Reason and Credibility – Case Studies

March 26, 2021

In construction defects litigation,
opposing parties often present widely
divergent assessments of the nature,
cause, and extent of purported deficiencies.
Such conflicting presentations
may well be founded on reasonable
analyses by impartial experts who simply have
honestly differing perspectives of the underlying
facts and logic of the case. Alternatively,
some consultants simply may not truly understand
the issues being litigated.
However, as demonstrated with the following
“case studies,” there are building enclosure
experts (plaintiff and defense) who willingly
advocate findings that exceed the bounds of
honest reason and basic credibility. Often, these
egregious advocates misuse traditional statistical
analysis or the qualitative sampling precepts
of industry standard ASTM E2128, Standard
Guide for Evaluating Water Leakage of Building
Walls.1
CASE STUDY 1 – PHOENIX, AZ
Consider a 50-building apartment complex
in Arizona where, at 200 second-floor
entry landings (Figure 1), improperly attached
and terminated metal flashings (Figure 2) provided
multiple routes (Figures 3 and 4) for
damaging rainwater migration down to the
stucco-wrapped engineered wood beams supporting
these stair landings. As seen at all 200
of these beams, evidence (for example, staining
and efflorescence per Figure 1) of trapped moisture
and underlying damage (Figures 5 and 6)
could be readily seen at the wrapped stucco.2
As this case slowly proceeded through
state and federal litigation processes, AVELAR
personnel testified that these conditions compromised
these buildings’ minimum expected
“service life”3 in violation of applicable building
codes, industry standards, the contracted
project specifications, and the permitted
architectural drawings. In contrast, opposing
26 • IIBEC Interface March 2021
Figure 1. Case Study 1 – Typical entry stair landing at 50-building apartment complex in
Phoenix, AZ.
defense consultants asserted that all such incomplete
waterproofing and flashing work complied
with local construction practices. (In essence,
these parties argued that the water-damaged
wood beams simply represented uninsured “acts
of God.”) While these local consultants may truly
have believed that such poor craftsmanship was
the local industry “standard” for lowest-bid contractors
at large-scale multifamily residential projects,
we strongly disagreed.4
Further, despite doing no destructive testing
of its own,5 the defense presented an economist
to argue that the lack of randomized statistical
sampling rendered our extrapolative findings
invalid. In response, we cited the purposeful
expert-driven “qualitative” (non-statistical) protocols
Figure 2. Case Study 1 – Removal
of concrete walking surface revealed
improperly attached and terminated
metal flashings.
Figure 3. Case Study 1 – Infiltrating water
flowed under/around the “T-bar” flashing
down to the wood beam below.
March 2021 IIBEC Interface • 27
Figure 4. Case Study 1 – Such damaging
leakage was accelerated by breaches in
the waterproofing membrane.
recommended by the authors
of ASTM E2128, as further
reviewed at Case Study 2 hereinafter.
In the end, jurors at the
two trials (state and federal)
concluded that these various
defense arguments exceeded
the bounds of reason and credibility.
6
CASE STUDY 2 –
SAN JOSE, CA
Consider a condominium
complex in San Jose,
California. The multistory
wood-framed, stucco-clad
structure (Figure 7) was built
atop a concrete podium slab7
that serves as the structural lid
for the parking garage below.
At the facility’s interior courtyard,
a concrete topping slab8
was installed (above a waterproofing
membrane) atop the
podium slab. As evidenced by
Figure 8, we observed multiple
areas of damaging water
leakage through the podium
slab down into the garage.
Then, per Figure 9, destructive testing at the
topping slab confirmed trapped water between
the waterproofing membrane and the podium
slab. Finally, as exemplified by Figure 10, at 16
distinct test locations at stucco-clad wall-toslab
transitions we consistently found trapped
moisture and associated structural damage due
to flashing and drainage deficiencies. In our
summary report, we confidently extrapolated
these base-of-wall performance deficiencies to
the entire perimeter (approximately 1,000 linear
ft.) of the interior courtyard. The defense
elected to not carry out any destructive testing.
During the ensuing litigation process, a
28 • IIBEC Interface March 2021
Figure 5. Case Study 1 – This
damage was exacerbated by
the absence of weep screeds at
the stucco-wrapped beams.
Figure 6. Case Study 1 –
Trapped moisture at the
engineered wood beams
promoted structural
damage and fungal growth.
defense statistician whose doctorate was in
the field of quantitative sociology9 asserted
that these documented conditions simply
could not be considered “representative”
because our team’s sampling and evaluative
methods had not been carried out in accordance
with statistical sampling protocols.
In deposition, he opined, “What they would
have to do is lay out the linear feet of the
integration of the membrane with the podium
walls. . . . Do you test 3 feet? Do you test
5 feet? Whatever. Break it up into numbered
segments and randomly select . . .”
He further testified, “I don’t believe there
is an industry standard for how to do this.
There is a right way and a wrong way to do
it, and what I’ve given you is the right way to
do it.” As further reviewed below, such fervent
and unsupported righteousness by defense
statisticians employed for construction
defects litigation commonly is based upon
unintended logical fallacies and associated
“circular reasoning.”10
March 2021 IIBEC Interface • 29
Figure 7. Case Study 2 – Transition from
the stucco-clad walls to the “topping slab”
and underlying “podium slab.”
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In short, despite having no construction
experience of any kind, he fully rejected the
purposeful expert-driven qualitative (nonstatistical)
protocols recommended within
industry standard ASTM E2128:
• Section 5.2: “The protocol in this
guide is not based on conventional
hypothesis testing and quantitative
random sampling. . . . The objective
of this guide is qualitative, purposeful,
and intended to address the
question of why, how and to what
extent a building leaks.”
• Section 5.3: “It is not assumed or
expected that all locations with
similar design, construction and
service characteristics will be currently
performing in precisely the
same manner. . . . The evaluation of
water leakage of building walls is a
cognitive process in which technically
valid conclusions are reached
by the application of knowledge,
experience and a rational methodology
to determine the following:
5.3.1 The intrinsic properties
of the wall. 5.3.2 The cause(s) and
mechanism(s) of leakage. 5.3.3 The
applicability of findings to similar
un-inspected or un-tested locations
on the building.”
CASE STUDY 3 – EAST COAST
Consider a massive 800-unit, 100-building
condominium complex in the northeastern
United States. The project was developed in
five distinct construction phases over a ten-year
period using differing contractors and subcontractors.
At every building, the primary cladding
system is vinyl lap siding with smaller sections
of traditional three-coat stucco, adhered
masonry stone veneer, and composite panels.
To evaluate the extent of alleged construction
defects, the homeowners association hired
an East Coast building enclosure consulting
firm that drilled 4,762 pairs of holes (that is,
on average, 47.6 pairs of holes per building)
through these multiple claddings in order to
insert insulated pins to measure moisture content
(MC) levels at the underlying wood-based
sheathing or framing.
From these MC readings at the 100 buildings,
a total of 64 test-cut locations were selected
for destructive examination. The conditions
exposed by these test cuts were key factors in
the principal architect’s claims that most of
the cladding systems at this complex should
be replaced (or partially reinstalled). It was
asserted that these qualitative extrapolations
were consistent with the cognitive sampling
protocols of industry standard ASTM E2128.12
We were hired by the defense to assess
the credibility of these extrapolations. Upon
review, we found this architect’s analyses contained
blatantly bloated advocacy. For example,
of the 1,047 readings taken
through the vinyl lap siding,
only 18 measured 20%
MC or higher. Further, this
architect’s projectwide siding
extrapolation was supported
by only six test openings
(of which five were taken at
only one construction phase
of this five-phased, ten-year,
multi-contractor project).
Then, perhaps recognizing
the absurdity of extrapolating
from such limited
destructive sampling, he
further claimed that a purported
windowsill flashing
deficiency (seen only at three
test openings at the adhered
masonry stone veneer-clad
walls) necessitated reflashing
(with associated cladding
remediation) all 9,000 windows
at all exterior cladding
systems throughout the entire
complex.
Even more remarkably, while the architect’s
crew had inspected sill flashing at only 1 of the
5,300 windows at the vinyl-clad walls, and the
conditions exposed at this window had not
revealed the purported flashing defect, this
architect’s fully burdened costing analysis for
vinyl siding remediation (not including additionally
claimed costs for reflashing these 5,300
windows) still exceeded $5.7 million. Similarly
questionable analytical incongruities riddled
the firm’s summary report.
We advised our client that these assertions
were not consistent with the protocols of ASTM
E2128, which advises: “The conclusions and
findings from an evaluation must be rationally
based on the activities and procedures undertaken
and the information acquired, if they are
to be considered legitimate and substantiated.”
We further reported: “For their findings
to be considered substantive, building envelope
professionals must avoid any degree of
biased advocacy that hides, distorts, or selectively
interprets the collected data. An absolute
cornerstone of the qualitative survey process is
the credibility of the researcher. The trustworthiness
of the qualitative analysis corresponds
directly to the trustworthiness and demonstrated
competence of the investigator.”13
CASE STUDY 4 – JACKSONVILLE, FL
Consider a 31-building condominium
complex in Jacksonville, Florida. The homeowners’
association hired a respected local engineering
30 • IIBEC Interface March 2021
Figure 8. Case Study 2 – Extensive water leakage through the podium slab was seen at the ceiling of the parking
garage.
32 • IIBEC Interface March 2021
firm to carry out a building enclosure
investigation relying upon multiple industry
standards, including ASTM E2128; ASTM
E2266, Standard Guide for Design and
Construction of Low-Rise Frame Building Wall
Systems to Resist Water Intrusion;14 and ASTM
E2018, Standard Guide for Property Condition
Assessments: Baseline Property Condition
Assessment Process.15
During our later review, we found this engineer’s
building enclosure assessment process
to have been consistent with the investigative
and evaluative protocols of ASTM E2128. As
has become increasingly common, the defense
elected to do no destructive testing of their
own, instead hiring a statistics professor from
an Arizona university who opined that plaintiff
expert’s analyses were not valid because the
qualitative investigaton had not been carried
out in conformance with the protocols of “hierarchical
statistical analysis” (commonly used
for clinical trials that evaluate the efficacies of
medical or educational treatments).
We were commissioned to explain to the
court the irrationality of this defense statistician’s
assertions, which we demonstrated were
founded upon logical fallacies and associated
circular reasoning that served to thoroughly
discredit the professor’s
analyses. Like most statisticians
who wander
blindly into the defects
litigation arena, a freely
admitted lack of practical
construction knowledge
or experience had
not constrained the professor
from confidently
opining:
• The term
“extrapolation”
never can be
employed for
any evaluative
process except
randomized statistical
sampling; therefore
• Because plaintiff expert’s extrapolative
processes and the qualitative protocols
delineated by ASTM E2128 were inconsistent
with random sampling, these
methods were intrinsically invalid.
This argument is fundamentally flawed
because it begins with a demonstrably unproven
premise (that, despite the industry-accepted
methodologies of E2128, random statistical
sampling is the only legitimate approach for
construction defects inspection and evaluation
processes) that leads circularly to a predetermined
conclusion.
We advised our client that “extrapolation”
certainly encompasses far more than the
self-promoting definition of a special interest
group. Consider, for example, how well Merriam
Webster’s definition (“to infer values of a variable
Figure 9. Case
Study 2 –
Trapped water
was found atop
the podium
slab (under the
waterproofing
membrane).
Figure 10. Case Study 2 – Trapped moisture and resulting damage
were found at the basewall transitions.
in an unobserved interval from values within
an already observed interval”16) comports with
E2128’s investigative and extrapolative protocols.
In our firm’s litigation experience, defense
statisticians have strived to craft via circular
reasoning an illusory “straw man”17 opponent
(a pretend incompetent statistician) that they
then can readily rebut from the confines of their
offices while fully side-stepping the actual merits
(or lack thereof, as seen previously in Case
Study 3) of the plaintiff expert’s extrapolative
findings.
In our opinion, this approach constitutes
close-minded intellectual laziness masked by
self-reverential certitudes unsupported by any
construction-knowledgeable authority,18 industry
association,19 or government agency.20
SUMMARY DISCUSSION
IIBEC’s Code of Ethics well defines the
moral and ethical duties of building enclosure
experts: “Members and registrants . . . shall
maintain the highest possible standard of professional
judgment and conduct. Members and
registrants shall conduct their practice honestly
and impartially, serving with integrity their clients,
employers, and/or the public. Learned and
uncompromised professional judgment should
take precedence over any other motive.”21
Unfortunately, as exemplified by these
typical case studies, IIBEC professionals will
encounter a wide range of litigation consultants
whose assertions greatly exceed the bounds
of expert reason and credibility. There will
always be monetary rewards for those willing
to promote extreme positions intended to game
the litigation process. Interestingly, we often
find those attorneys (plaintiff and defense) who
actively encourage egregious advocacy will justify
this approach by vilifying the purportedly
malign misconduct of the other side.
Still, the seemingly nefarious intent of the
opposition may merely reflect nothing more
than a lack of codes and standards training.
As suggested above in Case Study 1, certain
defense-only consultants may truly believe
that rainwater leakage and resulting structural
decay are acceptable outcomes at cost-conscious
production home projects.
Similarly, as well typified in Case Studies
1, 2, and 4, those defense statisticians hired to
discredit qualitative extrapolations carried out
in conformance with ASTM E2128’s protocols
profess to operate in a different plane where
their formulaic calculations will always trump
expert-driven knowledge and field experience.
Whether these consultants are economists,
quantitative sociologists, or advanced practitioners
of heirarchial statistical analysis, their
acknowledged lack of practical construction
knowledge is seen as being irrelevant. Any contrary
assertion will be discounted during the
litigation process via narrowly self-referential
circular reasoning.
By contrast, in Case Study 3, the plaintiff
architect’s exagerrated extrapolations did appear
to evidence knowingly compromised professional
judgments unworthy of a building enclosure
expert. In all such instances: “For their findings
to be considered substantive, all qualitative
researchers, including building envelope
professionals, must avoid any biased advocacy
that hides, distorts, or selectively interprets the
collected data. The mantra of the qualitative
researcher must be: ‘It is what it is.’ In other
words, the data tell the story, even if this story
differs from the desired or expected findings.”22
As IIBEC members, we must strive to
resist both unsupported certitudes and ethically
compromised advocacy by practicing
expert-driven analysis derived with professional
integrity from applicable code requirements
and associated industry standards.
March 2021 IIBEC Interface • 33
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REFERENCES
1. ASTM E2128, Standard Guide
for Evaluating Water Leakage of
Building Walls. ASTM International.
Conshohocken, PA. https://www.astm.
org/Standards/E2128.htm.
2. The absence of “weep screeds” at the
bottom corners of these beams certainly
exacerbated the resulting water
damage and fungal growth.
3. ASTM E2266, Standard Guide for Design
and Construction of Low-Rise Frame
Building Wall Systems to Resist Water
Intrusion. Section 4.2: “This guide is
based on the assumption that building
wall systems are supposed to maintain
their structural integrity for a period in
excess of a traditional 30-year mortgage,
and by extension, that water intrusion
over that period is restricted to such a
degree that water-induced structural
damage is avoided. In essence, the
expectation is that a frame wall’s watershedding
functionality will remain viable
over a period in excess of a traditional
30-year mortgage, given that the building
is not subject to abuse, and receives a
reasonable level of maintenance.” https://
www.astm.org/Standards/E2266.htm.
4. Murphy, C. and L. Haughton. 2010.
“Building Codes, Industry Standards
and Evaluation Reports.” Interface,
(January): “An industry standard is a
published document or detail that helps
define the levels of design, materials,
and workmanship that currently are
recognized via consensus by regional
or national industry associations
that represent a broad spectrum of the
key players within the specific industry.
These consensus standards represent
the minimum efforts necessary
to achieve a level of quality construction
that, with reasonable and timely
maintenance, will provide satisfactory
performance throughout the intended
service life of the system.”
5. Haughton, L., T. Stokes, D.M. Field, and S.
Penland. 2020. “Insurance ‘Wrap’ Policies
Are Transforming the Large-Scale
Building Enclosure Forensic Evaluation
Process.” Interface. (April): “While we
scoff at the legal gambit of using an inexperienced
statistician to attack a plaintiff
expert’s findings, it does sometimes make
good sense for the defense to not carry out
additional destructive testing.”
6. The subsequent federal trial was initiated
by the nationwide carrier that had provided
“excess coverage” insurance to supplement
the general contractor’s $1,000,000
primary policy. This carrier, who had
not even assisted the general contractor’s
defense, then balked at paying the excess
damages awarded at the state trial. The
subsequent federal jurors ruled against
this carrier’s efforts to deny coverage.
7. A concrete “podium slab” is an engineered
floor system that transfers the
vertical loads from a steel- or woodframed
structure above to the concrete
walls and columns below. The
load-bearing walls of the superstructure
above the podium slab commonly
will not align with the load-bearing
elements of the substructure below.
8. A “topping slab” is a concrete overlay
designed to provide a finished floor
surface and, where weather exposed, a
protective covering for an underlying
waterproofing membrane.
9. Deposition testimony: “It was essentially
a course of study focused on measurement
of the human population and
also measurement of things that they
34 • IIBEC Interface March 2021
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March 2021 IIBEC Interface • 35
possess. I’m what’s called a quantitative
sociologist, and my job is principally
to do surveys of the population and to
design and carry out experiments on
the population.”
10. ht t ps://en.wik ipedi a . org/wik i/
Circular_reasoning: “Circular reasoning
. . . is a logical fallacy in which
the reasoner begins with what they are
trying to end with. The components of
a circular argument are often logically
valid because if the premises are true,
the conclusion must be true. Circular
reasoning is not a formal logical fallacy
but a pragmatic defect in an argument
whereby the premises are just as much
in need of proof or evidence as the
conclusion, and as a consequence the
argument fails to persuade. Other ways
to express this are that there is no reason
to accept the premises unless one
already believes the conclusion, or that
the premises provide no independent
ground or evidence for the conclusion.”
11. Haughton, L. and C. Murphy. 2007.
“Qualitative Sampling of the Building
Envelope for Water Leakage.” Journal
of ASTM International. ASTM
International. Conshohocken, PA.
www.astm.org/DIGITAL_LIBRARY/
JOURNALS/JAI/PAGES/JAI100815.
htm: “A cardinal principle of qualitative
sampling (aka inductive analysis) is that
resulting causal findings and theoretical
statements clearly must be emergent
from and grounded in purposive
(or judgmental) field observation. In
other words, the expert’s step-by-step
process of qualitative analysis builds
toward general patterns that emerge
from a series of purposefully collected
datasets, instead of being derived statistically
from a dataset that has been randomly
generated to prove or disprove a
predetermined hypothesis.”
12. Haughton, L. and C. Murphy, 2010.
“Overview of ASTM E 2128, Standard
Guide for Evaluating Water Leakage of
Building Walls. “Interface, (February):
In short, the authors of ASTM E2128
are prescribing a purposeful qualitative
inquiry in which the goal of the skilled
investigator is to produce findings that
identify cause-and-effect relationships
between building envelope characteristics
and observed leakage and resulting
damage.”
13. Quoted from L. Haughton and
C. Murphy. 2007. “Qualitative
Sampling of the Building Envelope
for Water Leakage.” Journal of ASTM
International. www.astm.org/
DIGITAL_LIBRARY/JOURNALS/
JAI/PAGES/JAI100815.htm. Cited
within ASTM E2128.
14. ASTM E2266, Standard Guide for
Design and Construction of Low-Rise
Frame Building Wall Systems to Resist
Water Intrusion. ASTM International.
Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. https://
www.astm.org/Standards/E2266.htm.
15. ASTM E2018, Standard Guide for
Property Condition Assessments:
Baseline Property Condition Assessment
Process. ASTM International.
Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. https://
www.astm.org/Standards/E2018.htm.
16. Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary,
s.v. “extrapolate.” https://www.merriam-
webster.com/dictionary/extrapolate.
17. ht tps://en.wik ipedi a . org/wik i/
Straw_man: “A straw man is a form of
argument and an informal fallacy based
on giving the impression of refuting an
opponent’s argument, while actually
refuting an argument that was not presented
by that opponent.”
18. E.g., ASTM STP 1493, Repair, Retrofit
and Inspection of Building Exterior Wall
Systems. 2009. Edited by Jon Boyd and
Paul Johnson. ASTM International.
Conshohocken, PA. https://www.
astm.org/DIGITAL_LIBRARY/STP/
SOURCE_PAGES/STP1493.htm.
19. Searls, C.L. and T.N. Stubblefield. 2013.
“Investigation of large-scale building
envelope leakage.” Forensic Engineering
166. Institution of Civil Engineers.
London, United Kingdom: “The building
envelope investigation is not based
on conventional hypothesis testing
and quantitative random sampling, but
rather on scientifically valid principles
of qualitative analysis (ASTM, 2012;
Haughton and Murphy, 2007). The
building is known to leak, and the purpose
of the investigation is to determine
why it leaks, the extent of leakage and
possible repairs. This is done through
a process of observation, testing and
analysis using the engineer’s experience.
Investigation is a problem-solving
process that is often not linear.”
20. Building Enclosure Rehabilitation
Guide: Multiunit Residential Wood-
Framed Buildings. 2011. State of Oregon
Housing and Community Services.
Salem, Oregon. www.oregon.gov/ohcs/
hd/mf h/pdfs/building_enclosure_
rehab_guide_combined_final.pdf):
“From this perspective, it is favorable
to utilize information-rich sampling,
rather than random, blind sampling.
This methodology is well established
in the field of qualitative analysis. In
their paper, Qualitative Sampling of the
Building Envelope for Water Leakage,
Lonnie L. Haughton and Colin R.
Murphy provide a useful lay discussion
of qualitative analysis and its direct
benefit with use in the building assessment
industry.”
21. International Institute of Building
Enclosure Consultants. Code of Ethics.
https://iibec.org/membership/code-ofethics/
22. Haughton, L. and C. Murphy. “Qualitative
Sampling of the Building Envelope
for Water Leakage.” Journal of ASTM
International. 2007. ASTM International.
Conshohocken, PA. www.astm.org/
DIGITAL_LIBRARY/JOURNALS/
JAI/PAGES/JAI100815.htm.
Lonnie Haughton,
MCP, LEED AP, is a
senior partner with
AVELAR, a forensic
architectural, engineering,
construction,
and codes consulting
firm in Walnut Creek,
California. (Founded
in Oakland in 1976
as Richard Avelar &
Associates, the firm
has rebranded and
relocated in 2020.)
Haughton is a California-licensed general contractor
and one of about 950 code professionals
certified by the International Code Council
as active Master Code Professionals. His paper,
“Qualitative Sampling of the Building Envelope
for Water Leakage,” published in the October 2007
issue of the Journal of ASTM International, is cited
within industry standard ASTM E2128.
Lonnie Haughton,
MCP, LEED AP
36 • IIBEC Interface March 2021
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An AI program is being developed that, when combined with footage from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),
could be used to conduct automated investigations of building enclosures, possibly identifying problems earlier.
Thornton Tomasetti Damage Detector (T2D2) is a machine-based learning system that uses an image-analysis
algorithm to search for and identify damage to
building façades and roofs. The system was invented
by Badri Hiriyur, director of Thornton Tomasetti’s
CORE.AI lab. The T2D2 has been fed numerous
photos from Thornton Tomasetti’s archives to teach
it to identify problem areas. The company stresses
that this technology is not meant to take the place
of a qualified engineer conducting inspections,
but rather to enable more frequent, automated
inspections that might be able to identify possible
problem spots and bring them to the attention of
an inspector. It is hoped that this early intervention
will help catch potential concern spots before they
cause significant damage.
— ENR
AI Could ID Construction Defects Early
Image courtesy of T2D2.
2021